Friday, February 20, 2015

Simulated GP Results using PTFRF Information

Using the data kindly provided to me by dafrk3in, I decided to simulate what a modern GP (15 rounds plus T8) would look like with the same metagame and match win %s as the PT, the average T8 looked like this (n = 10,000 sims):

LivingEnd 0.0566
Storm 0.0712
Affinity 0.2278
Jund 0.0276
WB Tokens 0.0972
Faeries 0.034
UR Twin 0.8492
Merfolk 0.1446
unknown 0.0
GRTron 0.0682
Abzan 0.989
Scapeshift 0.157
Little Kid Abzan 0.3038
other 0.3838
Burn 0.8394
Infect 1.7248
Grixis Twin 0.0178
Zoo 0.078
Amulet 1.9
UWR Midrange 0.03

Average winners (same n):

LivingEnd 0.004
Storm 0.0022
Affinity 0.0058
Jund 0.003
WB Tokens 0.002
Faeries 0.0026
UR Twin 0.2014
Merfolk 0.004
unknown 0.0
GRTron 0.0046
Abzan 0.0822
Scapeshift 0.0232
Little Kid Abzan 0.0152
other 0.0272
Burn 0.0318
Infect 0.2248
Grixis Twin 0.0002
Zoo 0.0054
Amulet 0.3594
UWR Midrange 0.001

tl;dr:  Infect/Amulet super underperformed at the PT, Twin overperformed significantly.

Edit:  Included the PTFRF metagame:
{'other': 0.12039312039312039, 'Little Kid Abzan': 0.014742014742014743, 'Faeries': 0.012285012285012284, 'Abzan': 0.26535626535626533, 'Infect': 0.0687960687960688, 'Grixis Twin': 0.0171990171990172, 'Affinity': 0.06633906633906633, 'LivingEnd': 0.012285012285012284, 'Scapeshift': 0.029484029484029485, 'WB Tokens': 0.014742014742014743, 'unknown': 0.0, 'UR Twin': 0.04176904176904177, 'Jund': 0.019656019656019656, 'Merfolk': 0.019656019656019656, 'Burn': 0.12530712530712532, 'Zoo': 0.056511056511056514, 'UWR Midrange': 0.029484029484029485, 'GRTron': 0.044226044226044224, 'Amulet': 0.0171990171990172, 'Storm': 0.02457002457002457}

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