Friday, December 20, 2013

How the New Pro Tour Top 8 Structure Would Have Changed the Results of Past Pro Tours

Pro Tour Return to Ravnica

Quarterfinals:

Willy Edel vs. David Ochoa

Willy Edel would have won the match 2-1 rather than Ochoa coming back and winning the match after starting 0-2.

Pedro Carvalho vs. Stanislave Cifka:

Same result

Shi Tian Lee vs. Eduardo Sajgalik

Same result

Kevin Chew vs. Yuuya Watanabe 

Same Result

Semifinals:

Shi Tian Lee vs. Stanislave Cifka

Same result

Yuuya Watanabe vs. David Ochoa

This match would not have happened, but if it did under the new rules the same result would have occurred.

Overall Different Results:  1

Pro Tour Gatecrash

Quarterfinals:

Ben Stark vs. Steven Mann

Same result

Joel Larsson vs, Gerry Thompson

Same result

Owen Turtenwald vs. Eric Froehlich

Same result

Melissa DeTora vs. Tom Martell

Same result

Semifinals:

Eric Froehlich vs. Tom Martell

Same result

Joel Larsson vs. Ben Stark 

Ben Stark would have won the match 2-1 and proceeded to the finals vs. Tom Martell.  During the course of the PT, Ben Stark was 2-0 vs The Aristocrats (with one of those wins coming against Martell), so it's somewhat probable that with these rules in place the winner of this PT would have been Stark.

Overall different results:  1 (2 total)

Pro Tour Dragon's Maze

Quarterfinals

Craig Wescoe vs. Andrejs Prost

Wescoe, the eventual Pro Tour winner would have lost 2-1 to Andrejs.  Andrejs instead would have played vs. Utter-Leyton's boros deck in the semis.  During this T8 match, Utter-Leyton tweeted

"This quarterfinal between Prost and Wescoe is a huge sweat for me, don't think I can possibly win against Wescoe"

Utter-Leyton would possibly have a semifinals and finals match against Esper control, where he obviously felt confident about his chances.

Andrew Shrout vs. Josh Utter-Leyton

Same result

Rob Castellon vs. Dusty Ochoa

Same result

Makihito Mihara vs. Matej Zatlkaj

Matej would have won this game in 3, but this would have still left the semifinal match as an Esper mirror.

Semifinals

Dusty Ochoa vs. Makihito Mihara

Mihara would have won the match 2-1.

Josh Utter-Leyton vs. Craig Wescoe

Match would not have happened, but it would have the same result as Wescoe was up 2-1 at the end of game 3.

Overall different results:  3 (5 total)

Pro Tour Theros

Quarterfinals

Jeremy Dezani vs. Kamiel Cornelissen

Same result

Makihito Mihara vs. Paul Rietzl

Reitzl would have won (and Mihara would be 1-1 in terms of how he was affected by the changes)

Sam Black vs. Kentarou Yamamoto

Same result

Pieree Dagen vs. Guillaume Wafo-Tapa

Same result.


Semifinals

Jeremy Dezani vs. Makihito Mihara

Same result

Sam Black vs. Pieree Dagen

Same result

Overall different results:  1 (6 total)

Biggest losers if the new system was used for the last year:  Craig Wescoe, maybe Tom Martell

Biggest winners if the new system was used for the last year:  Josh Utter-Leyton, maybe Ben Stark

tl;dr:  6 matches would have changed with one PT having a guaranteed different winner (as Wescoe would have lost in the quarters) and one having a likely different winner (as Ben Stark was favored against Martell's Aristocrats)

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

PT Predictions - Let's See How I did

So, I finally got around to dong my PT analysis article today and I wanted to see how my predictions eneded up.  I didn't track how many T16ed in the analysis, but did top 25 instead.  I ended up doing quite well.  Original post here:  http://dieplstks.blogspot.com/2013/05/pt-team-preview.html:


Part of the team performance charts:  http://i.imgur.com/QQl2rZU.png


Team Australia

Predicted members in the T16:  0-1
Actual top 25:  0

Close.

Team Channel Fireball

Predicted number in the T16:  4
Actual top 25:  4



European Union

Predicted number in the T16:  3
Actual top 25:  2


Team Luxurious Hair

Predicted number in the T16:  0-1
Actual top 25:  1 (granted they did have the PT winner as their one member)

Team Rourix

Predicted number in the T16:  1 (it's a small team)
Actual top 25:  0


Team Starcity


Predicted number in the T16:  4
Actual top 25:  3

Shocked they went under, even when we expand to the top 25.  Oh well, :(

Wilson Gone Wild

Predicted number in the T16:  1
Actual top 25:  0

None of the other teams listed really got my interest/hopes of a strong performance up.  This is just unfiltered thoughts so don't judge me and I could be wildly wrong here.  :P

From all the other teams listed by Lauren Lee only twp people from Team Legit and one from NWA top 25ed.

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Playing as Nekrium vs. Alloyin

Nekrium was the third starter deck for SolForge  that I played and I was doing terribly with it against the computer AI at first after having an 80+% win rate with both Alloyin and Tempys.  The deck, at first, seemed like some midrange green deck that just didn't do anything against the long-term inevitability of Alloyin or the all-in of Tempys.

One of the biggest departures from a game like Magic/VS to SolForge is the understanding that not every card in a SolForge deck has to have utility in all circumstances.  If there was a 2-game metagame, the optima SolForge deck would have 15 cards that were specifically chosen against one deck and only play those during the course of the match.  The original problem I had with the Nekrium deck was that I originally was leveling up individual cards for the power they provided when I should have thought about leveling up combinations of cards instead.  Realizing this changed how I played the match and my results dramatically.

The Cards

Scourgeflame Sorcerer:  The most high variance card in the deck.  Broken on turn 1, excellent on turn 2, average on turn 3, and completely useless after that.  Don't play this card if you draw it late as it's dimply not worth it, but on early turns it should be the highest priority play.  I'm not sure what the correct play is between it and Devourer on turn one when on the play.  Obviously amazing with Death Seeker and Vengeful Spirit, can also win some clutch games when used with Graveborn Glutton

Grimgaunt Devourer:  The best card in the deck.  If you manage to play it early you can just force 1-for-1 trades for the rest fo the game and win pretty easily.  It does not fall off late game so if you ever draw this, it's almost never incorrect to play it.

Corpse Crawler:  Solid body and enables the same tricks as Strike and Sorcerer.  Not as high of a priority as the cards with more utility, but still solid in the match

Epidemic:  An extremely strong card in the Alloyin match.  It negates all the armor present in the deck and along with Death Seeker and Vengeful Spirrit can provide massively one sided board states for you.  Levelling this up is a priority as the level 3 Epidemic is critical to trumping the lategame of the Alloyin deck.

Grave Pact:  This card is always solid, but almost never an all-star.  Makes for good trades and can often be a 2-for-1 when used with Death Seeker and Vengeful Spirit.  Just like Sorcerer, can be used to steal a game every once in a while with a Glutton.  The higher levels of this card aren't that much better than the level 1 version, so it's generally not advisable to play it in order to level it.

Graveborn Glutton:  This was, at least for me, the most unintuitively good card in this match.  Over the course of the game, the damage output from the death trigger is surprisingly high and definitely game changing.

Darkshaper Savant:  This card is pretty bad here, the effects at higher levels aren't impactful enough to be worth it.

Blight Walker:  Armor and Sonic Pulse means this never does damage, don't play it in this match,

Fleshfiend:  Outclassed at every level by Forgeplate Sentry and Ionic Warcharger,  This card excels in other matches, but is just worse than Xithian Hulk here.

Death Seeker/Vengeful Spirit:  The core of the deck.  These cards excel at dealing with the armor, mitigating damage from high power creatures, and enable the other cards in your deck.  You almost always want to be leveling these up when you can.  Vengeful spirit deals 7/14/21 which is extremely high and provides amazing utility.

Hungering Strike:  A card that has its niche usage at times and can occasionally generate interesting 2 for 1s.

Xithian Hulk:  A mediocre vanilla creature that can be played defensively when need be.

General Advice

1)  The best game plan is to land an early devourer and force them to deal with it by taking 1-for-1 trades over and over again.  They have no hard removal for devourer so the only way they have to manage is playing creatures and trying to put enough damage on it.  This allows you to stall the game as they attempt to answer it and a Devourer 3 is basically unstoppable.

2)  Don't let important combat take place on their turn.  Between Pulse, Tech Upgrade, and Brightsteel Colossus they can blow you out on their combat steps so any big combats have to take place on your turn.  It's better to set up defensive plays than offensive ones that have to happen during their combat.

3)  Try to keep as many robots off their board as possible.  The deck synergizes well as their board grows, so try to trade a lot.

Annotated Game (vs.  Computer Hard as Alloyin)



The obvious play is Sorcerer in lane 1.  The choice for your second play is between Glutton in lane 3 or playing Epidemic (first, obviously).  I choose to play Epidemic as there are only 2 in the deck (vs. 4 Glutton) and having it at higher levels is important.


The choices here are between playing Death Seeker/Grave Pact vs.  Death Seeker and Epidemic.  Once again, because Epidemic is critcal to my late game plan I play Death Seeker in lane 4, use Sorcerer on Spark Bot, attack (misclicked in game and did not actualy attack, :() , then Epidemic.


Devourer in lane 5 is obvious.  The best second play is to Grave Pact the Savant in order to maximize the size of Devourer.



Vengeful Spirit in lane 1, followed by Crawler, sacrificing Spirit (to kill Warden) in lane 4 is the best line here.


The goal this turn is to keep our Devourer alive at all costs.  Two plays accomplish this:
1)  Play Vengeful Spirit in lane 3, Grave pact their Forge Sentry, then attack.  This leaves us with a 13/4 Devourer and then with a 9/5 Forgeplate Sentry in lane 4.
2)  Grave Pact sacrificing Crawler, then Epidemic.  This leaves us with an 9/3 Devourer and them with a 4/4 Forgeplate Sentry.

Option 2 is much better as every card in their deck (besides a level 1 Warden) can deal 4 or more, and the second option slows down their clock considerably.




Devourer in lane 2, Death Seeker in lane 4.  Not remotely close to do otherwise.



Once again, as our priority is to keep Devourer alive, we have two options once again:
1)  Level 1 Cralwer sacrificing Warroir into lane 3, level 2 Crawler sacrificing crawlwe into lane 1.  This leaves us with a 15/4 Devourer and a 13/6 crawler and them with a 6/5 Sentry.
2)  Grave Pact Sacrificng Warrior and Glutton into lane 1.  This leaves us with a 13/8 Devourer and them with a 6/4 Sentry and 8/2 Technomancer.

Option 1 makes Devourer more vulnerable, but they have to deal with it on their next turn and we have a much better board position so I chose to go with that.  Option 2 gives a much higher chance of Devourer surviving, but costs us too much board position to do so.



Attack, play Death Seeker anywhere, then Epidemic.


Things are starting to look grim.  Attack, place Spiriting into lane 2 and Glutton into lane 5 and pass.



At this point our only chance is to draw an Epidemic and win from there so this becomes a game where we have to prioritize damage mitigation.  Playing Devourer into lane 2 to trade with Warden and Seeker into lane 4 means we'll take 30 next turn, the least amound possible for us to take.  We fail to draw Epidemic next turn and die.  :(

Sunday, May 19, 2013

Pro Player Club Changes after #PTDGM

Josh Utter-Leyton went from Platinum to Platinum
Tom Martell went from Platinum to Platinum
Yuya Watanabe went from Platinum to Platinum
Eric Froehlich went from Silver to Platinum
Ben Stark went from Gold to Platinum
Brian Kibler went from Platinum to Platinum
Shuhei Nakamura went from Platinum to Platinum
Shahar Shenhar went from Platinum to Platinum
Stanislav Cifka went from Platinum to Platinum
Martin Juza went from Platinum to Platinum
Willy Edel went from Gold to Platinum
David Ochoa went from Platinum to Platinum
Reid Duke went from Gold to Platinum
Owen Turtenwald went from Platinum to Platinum
Makihito Mihara went from Gold to Platinum
Luis Scott-Vargas went from Platinum to Platinum
Craig Wescoe went from Platinum to Platinum
Shi Tian Lee went from Nothing to Gold
Tzu-Ching Kuo went from Platinum to Gold
Conley Woods went from Platinum to Gold
Gerry Thompson went from Gold to Gold
samuele Estratti went from Platinum to Gold
Matthew Costa went from Platinum to Gold
Joel Larsson went from Gold to Gold
Jon Stern went from Nothing to Gold
David Sharfman went from Nothing to Gold
Melissa DeTora went from Silver to Gold
Raphael Levy went from Platinum to Gold
Gabriel Nassif went from Nothing to Gold
Ari Lax went from Nothing to Gold
Andrejs Prost went from Gold to Gold
Ivan Floch went from Gold to Gold
Samuel Black went from Platinum to Gold
Patrick Cox went from Gold to Gold
Paul Rietzl went from Platinum to Gold
Christian Calcano went from Silver to Gold
Kelvin Chew went from Silver to Gold
Ken Yukuhiro went from Platinum to Gold
Shota Yasooka went from Platinum to Gold
Stephen Mann went from Nothing to Gold
Jacob Wilson went from Nothing to Gold
Lukas Jaklovsky went from Platinum to Gold
Alexander Hayne went from Platinum to Gold
Denniz Rachid went from Platinum to Gold
Dan Jordan went from Gold to Gold
Dave Shiels went from Silver to Gold
Chris Fennell went from Nothing to Gold
Gaudenis Vidugiris went from Gold to Gold
Jon Finkel went from Platinum to Silver
Thomas Holzinger went from Platinum to Silver
Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa went from Platinum to Silver
Tomek Pedrakowski went from Gold to Silver
Harry Corvese went from Nothing to Silver
Alex Majlaton went from Silver to Silver
Dusty Ochoa went from Nothing to Silver
Samuel Pardee went from Nothing to Silver
Jeremy Dezani went from Nothing to Silver
Maksym Gryn went from Nothing to Silver
Satoshi Yamaguchi went from Nothing to Silver
Andreas Nordahl went from Gold to Silver
Felipe Tapia Becerra went from Nothing to Silver
Elias Watsfeldt went from Gold to Silver
Miguel Gatica went from Nothing to Silver
Matthew Nass went from Gold to Silver
Brian Demars went from Nothing to Silver
Eduardo Sajgalik went from Silver to Silver
Sebastian Denno went from Nothing to Silver
Robin Dolar went from Nothing to Silver
Brad Nelson went from Silver to Silver
Hao-Shan Huang went from Gold to Silver
Jonas Koestler went from Silver to Silver
Brock Parker went from Nothing to Silver
louis Deltour went from Nothing to Silver
Matteo Versari went from Nothing to Silver
Bo Li went from Nothing to Silver
Roberto Gonzales went from Nothing to Silver
Ben Friedman went from Gold to Silver
Lucas Siow went from Nothing to Silver
José Francisco Silva went from Nothing to Silver
Justin Cheung went from Nothing to Silver
Gerard Fabiano went from Silver to Silver
Joe Demestrio went from Nothing to Silver
Rob Castellon went from Nothing to Silver
Andrew Shrout went from Nothing to Silver
Andreas Ganz went from Gold to Silver
Robert Jurkovic went from Platinum to Silver
Matej Zatlkaj went from Nothing to Silver
Patrick Chapin went from Gold to Silver
Zvi Mowshowitz went from Nothing to Silver
Frank Skarren went from Nothing to Silver
richmond Tan went from Nothing to Silver
Vidianto Wijaya went from Nothing to Silver
Juan Carlos Adebo Diaz went from Nothing to Silver
Tamas Nagy went from Gold to Silver
Alessandro Portaro went from Gold to Silver
Matthias Hunt went from Gold to Silver
Max Sjoblom went from Gold to Silver
Marc Lalague went from Nothing to Silver
Kenny Oberg went from Gold to Silver
Thomas Enevoldsen went from Nothing to Silver
Michael Majors went from Nothing to Silver
Ali Aintrazi went from Gold to Silver
Nicolas Cuenca went from Nothing to Silver
Timothée Simonot went from Silver to Silver
Lukas Tajak went from Nothing to Silver
daniel Royde went from Gold to Silver
Tomoharu Saito went from Nothing to Silver
Andrew Cantillana went from Nothing to Silver
Sveinung Bjørnerud went from Gold to Silver
Chapman Sim went from Nothing to Silver
Matthew Sperling went from Silver to Silver
Wenzel Krautmann went from Nothing to Silver
Mike Krasnitski went from Nothing to Silver
Richard Bland went from Platinum to Silver
Jesse Hampton went from Platinum to Silver
Tyler Lytle went from Nothing to Silver
Andrew Cuneo went from Gold to Silver






Who fell off completely:
Jeremy Neeman went from Gold to Nothing
Vincent Lemoine went from Gold to Nothing
Lukas Blohon went from Gold to Nothing
Chikara Nakajima went from Gold to Nothing
Allan Christensen went from Gold to Nothing
Alexander West went from Gold to Nothing
Jelger Wiegersma went from Gold to Nothing
Bernd Brendemühl went from Gold to Nothing
Ruben Snijdewind went from Gold to Nothing
Marc Anderson went from Gold to Nothing
Marcello Calvetto went from Gold to Nothing
Ryota Endo went from Gold to Nothing
Junya Iyanaga went from Gold to Nothing
Jackie Lee went from Gold to Nothing
Ryuichiro Ishida went from Gold to Nothing
Mamoru Nagai went from Gold to Nothing

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Pro Level Changes

NOTE:  These are not including the points from PTDM, so this list will be updated soon.


Yuya Watanabe went from Platinum to Platinum
Ben Stark went from Gold to Platinum
Josh Utter-Leyton went from Platinum to Platinum
Tom Martell went from Platinum to Platinum
Shahar Shenhar went from Platinum to Platinum
Eric Froehlich went from Silver to Platinum
Willy Edel went from Gold to Platinum
David Ochoa went from Platinum to Platinum
Shuhei Nakamura went from Platinum to Platinum
Stanislav Cifka went from Platinum to Platinum
Martin Juza went from Platinum to Platinum
Owen Turtenwald went from Platinum to Platinum
Brian Kibler went from Platinum to Gold
Shi Tian Lee went from Nothing to Gold
Tzu-Ching Kuo went from Platinum to Gold
Gerry Thompson went from Gold to Gold
Reid Duke went from Gold to Gold
Conley Woods went from Platinum to Gold
samuele Estratti went from Platinum to Gold
Joel Larsson went from Gold to Gold
Jon Stern went from Nothing to Gold
Ivan Floch went from Gold to Gold
Luis Scott-Vargas went from Platinum to Gold
Kelvin Chew went from Silver to Gold
Melissa DeTora went from Silver to Gold
Matthew Costa went from Platinum to Gold
Samuel Black went from Platinum to Gold
Christian Calcano went from Silver to Gold
Paul Rietzl went from Platinum to Gold
Shota Yasooka went from Platinum to Gold
Jacob Wilson went from Nothing to Gold
Raphael Levy went from Platinum to Gold
Alexander Hayne went from Platinum to Gold
Lukas Jaklovsky went from Platinum to Gold
Ari Lax went from Nothing to Gold
Patrick Cox went from Gold to Silver
Dave Shiels went from Silver to Silver
Harry Corvese went from Nothing to Silver
Alex Majlaton went from Silver to Silver
Dan Jordan went from Gold to Silver
Gaudenis Vidugiris went from Gold to Silver
Stephen Mann went from Nothing to Silver
Makihito Mihara went from Gold to Silver
Jon Finkel went from Platinum to Silver
Thomas Holzinger went from Platinum to Silver
Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa went from Platinum to Silver
Tomek Pedrakowski went from Gold to Silver
Miguel Gatica went from Nothing to Silver
Ken Yukuhiro went from Platinum to Silver
Samuel Pardee went from Nothing to Silver
Eduardo Sajgalik went from Silver to Silver
Maksym Gryn went from Nothing to Silver
Robin Dolar went from Nothing to Silver
Elias Watsfeldt went from Gold to Silver
Lucas Siow went from Nothing to Silver
Denniz Rachid went from Platinum to Silver
David Sharfman went from Nothing to Silver
Bo Li went from Nothing to Silver
Gabriel Nassif went from Nothing to Silver
Jeremy Dezani went from Nothing to Silver
Satoshi Yamaguchi went from Nothing to Silver
Brian Demars went from Nothing to Silver
Matthew Nass went from Gold to Silver
Sebastian Denno went from Nothing to Silver
Felipe Tapia Becerra went from Nothing to Silver
louis Deltour went from Nothing to Silver
Brock Parker went from Nothing to Silver
Brad Nelson went from Silver to Silver
Andreas Nordahl went from Gold to Silver
Hao-Shan Huang went from Gold to Silver
Roberto Gonzales went from Nothing to Silver
Matteo Versari went from Nothing to Silver
Ben Friedman went from Gold to Silver
Joe Demestrio went from Nothing to Silver
Gerard Fabiano went from Silver to Silver
Justin Cheung went from Nothing to Silver
Michael Majors went from Nothing to Silver
Marc Lalague went from Nothing to Silver
Andreas Ganz went from Gold to Silver
Jonas Koestler went from Silver to Silver
José Francisco Silva went from Nothing to Silver
Andrejs Prost went from Gold to Silver
Craig Wescoe went from Platinum to Silver
Wenzel Krautmann went from Nothing to Silver
Chris Fennell went from Nothing to Silver
Vidianto Wijaya went from Nothing to Silver
Juan Carlos Adebo Diaz went from Nothing to Silver
Tyler Lytle went from Nothing to Silver
Tamas Nagy went from Gold to Silver
richmond Tan went from Nothing to Silver
Matthew Sperling went from Silver to Silver


Who fell off?:


Richard Bland went from Platinum to Nothing
Jesse Hampton went from Platinum to Nothing
Robert Jurkovic went from Platinum to Nothing
Jeremy Neeman went from Gold to Nothing
Vincent Lemoine went from Gold to Nothing
Lukas Blohon went from Gold to Nothing
Chikara Nakajima went from Gold to Nothing
Allan Christensen went from Gold to Nothing
Ali Aintrazi went from Gold to Nothing
Kenny Oberg went from Gold to Nothing
Patrick Chapin went from Gold to Nothing
Alessandro Portaro went from Gold to Nothing
Alexander West went from Gold to Nothing
Jelger Wiegersma went from Gold to Nothing
Sveinung Bjørnerud went from Gold to Nothing
Bernd Brendemühl went from Gold to Nothing
Ruben Snijdewind went from Gold to Nothing
Marc Anderson went from Gold to Nothing
Matthias Hunt went from Gold to Nothing
Marcello Calvetto went from Gold to Nothing
Andrew Cuneo went from Gold to Nothing
Ryota Endo went from Gold to Nothing
Junya Iyanaga went from Gold to Nothing
daniel Royde went from Gold to Nothing
Jackie Lee went from Gold to Nothing
Ryuichiro Ishida went from Gold to Nothing
Mamoru Nagai went from Gold to Nothing
Max Sjoblom went from Gold to Nothing

Thursday, May 16, 2013

PT Team Preview

Going purely based off Lauren's team rosters which you can find here

Team Australia

The team has fomrer PT start Jeremy Neeman (he took time off form the game for his studies iirc) and small child prodigy Zen Takashi who has three PT qualifications before he turned 16.  I don't know how much they tested, but the overall tea composition is mostly people not used to the testing process for a PT and, combined with the jetlag from travelling, I sadly don't see a great level of success coming from this team.

Predicted members in the T16:  0-1


Team Channel Fireball

One of the "big two" teams of Magic, the CFB roster for this PT has expanded dramatically with the addition of GerryT, Matt Nass, and Shahar.  CFB consistently performs well in the limited portion of the event (I assume this is due to the contributions of BenS and EFro), but has struggled in some recent constructed formats.  This struggle is further amplified by the two star players having a huge slump this year.  Hopefully PTDM allows PV and LSV to hit platinum, but I think it requires about a T8 for either of them to do so.  But I expect the team to do quite well at the PT (anyone not picking EFro in your fantasy PT drafts is committing a serious error).

Predicted number in the T16:  4

European Union

The third strongest team in the tournament, headlined by the second best player of all time.  In addition to the juggernaut, the team also includes the extremely underrated Jurkovich and Floch.  I expect this team to compete with team SCG for the best constructed performance overall, but the limited portion of the event has been the downfall of previous iterations of this team.  Time will tell if they're better prepared for PTDM.

Predicted number in the T16:  3

Team Luxurious Hair

The team most likely to find some off-the-wall aggro deck thanks to the combined powers of Wescoe and Ari Lax.  If the deck they find isn't good, they won't perform well, but otherwise should put up some above average numbers.

Predicted number in the T16:  0-1

Team Rourix

The Brazilian team is much better than anyone will give them credit for.  The combination of Edel and Kaoz_zeh is pretty lethal in a format where midrange green decks are good, so I expect them to surpass everyone's (even my own) expectations for them.

Predicted number in the T16:  1 (it's a small team)

Team Starcity

The other "big two" team and a 17-member power squad.  Sam Black and Zvi are known for creating decks to beat the PT meta and have had an incredible level of success doing so in the past so nothing different should be expected here especially when combined with Chapin's theorycrafting power now (I think he was part of CFB for the last PT).

Predicted number in the T16:  4

Wilson Gone Wild

The team that's the biggest wildcard in the event.  If they put actual work into testing, they'd perform solidly, but I don't think they'll do so.  This is the team most likely to get wasted the night before the event, make a brew, write "YOLO!" on their deck boxes and jam it the next day.  Possible I'm very wrong on this one, but meh.

Predicted number in the T16:  1

None of the other teams listed really got my interest/hopes of a strong performance up.  This is just unfiltered thoughts so don't judge me and I could be wildly wrong here.  :P

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Let's Make a Team of PTQ Grinders!


A few years ago I had the opportunity to be a member of Gavin Verhey's Team Unknown Stars, which is probably the first "turning point" of how I thought of Magic.  At the time my results were awful (a lot of PTQ T8s, but never won a quarterfinals match), but I was lucky to be accepted thanks to having a lot of friends already on the team who thought I had potential.  While on the team, I still never won a PTQ (that wouldn't be until turning point #2 upon getting back from New Zealand), but my results improved, I played a large part in the design of the UB Mannequin deck, and I got to network with tons of amazing players who ended up "breaking through".  So, since I've been out of Magic for around a year now I'm going to try forming something similar to the old Team Unknown Stars.  Looking for 10-15 people to start and will start as a mailing list/Skype group, but maybe a forum will be in the near future.  The goal is to foster a discussion of the current PTQ format and get members on to the Pro Tour.  TO foster this goal, I'm going to be rather strict about who gets to be a part of this and am requiring an application.  If you're interested in joining fill out the following application (mostly stolen from the old TUS forum) and e-mail me at chrism315 at gmail dot com with the subject "Team Application":

-Your Name and age

-Your Magic accomplishments

-The last three major tournaments you attended and your record at each of them (Major tournaments are considered to be large events such as PTQ's, Regionals, Champs, Nationals, the Pro Tour, and other events on those levels or higher.)

-Why you play competitive Magic

-What your main reasons are for wanting to join the team

-What you think you would bring to the team that makes you stand out above other applicants

-What your strengths as a Magic player are

-What your weakness as a Magic player are

-What the main formats that you play and focus on are

-Which format you think you're most proficient in

-How much modo do you play?  What's your screenname?

-Do you have a blog or write for a site?  If so, link to your work.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Worst of 2012


On the other hand there are tons of articles produced this year that probably shouldn’t exist.  Wes Wise’s Magic 8-Ball article (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/finance/23516_Wise_Buys_Are_You_Smarter_Than_A_Magic_8Ball.html) is one of the most out-of-place pieces of financial writing ever and I don’t really know what to say about it.  Read it at your own risk.  Ben Bleiweiss’ DKA set review (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/finance/23507_The_Financial_Value_Of_Dark_Ascension.html) was super misleading given his past results and I even wrote a blog post about it (http://yourarticleisbad.blogspot.com/2012/01/financial-value-of-dark-ascension.html). 
My article, Chasing Kate (http://www.gatheringmagic.com/chrismascioli-chasing-kate-why-and-how-i-qualified-for-pro-tour-dark-ascension/), unfortunately also ends up here.  Jesse Mason and Jon Corpora warned me not to publish this and boy, should I have listened.  I don’t really know what to say about this one and it probably would have ended up as my worst article of 2012 had it not been for one very special gem by Jon Agley (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/standard/23602_Grinding_A_Question_Of_Values.html), described by none other than Pat Chapin as: